Wind Speed Modifies Temperature Humidity Effect on HFMD in Western China

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant public health challenge in Western China, with seasonal outbreaks influenced by environmental factors. Understanding how meteorological variables, particularly wind speed, intersect with temperature and humidity to affect HFMD incidence is crucial for improving public health strategies.

Method: This study utilized a time-series analysis of HFMD cases reported from 2010 to 2020 across multiple regions in Western China. The sample included over 100,000 reported cases. The researchers employed generalized additive models to assess the relationship between wind speed, temperature, humidity, and HFMD rates, controlling for potential confounders such as population density.

Result: The analysis revealed that an increase in wind speed by 1 m/s correlates with a 17% reduction in HFMD rates at high humidity levels (greater than 70%). Additionally, at optimal temperature (25 to 30 degrees Celsius), the interaction between temperature and humidity showed a risk ratio of 1.4 for HFMD cases with low wind speed. Confidence intervals ranged from 1.2 to 1.7, with P-values <0.001 confirming the significance.

Conclusion: The findings support the incorporation of wind speed into predictive models for HFMD outbreaks, suggesting that public health interventions should consider environmental factors to reduce HFMD risks. However, limitations such as the study's observational design and regional specificity warrant caution in generalizing results across different geographical areas.

Original citation address: https://www.besjournal.com/en/article/doi/10.3967/bes2026.008